Disclaimer: I will not be covering several categories here: best animated and documentary shorts and films and best original song. This is because I haven’t seen or researched these films enough to provide an accurate analysis, but they will be covered in my Oscar winners story in March, as I will make an effort to screen the films before then.

CASTING
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sinners”
Surprises: Selecting surprises for this category is difficult, as this is the first year that it’s been an award at the Academy, but I am slightly surprised that “Bugonia” or “F1” didn’t sneak into this category to support their surprising presence in the rest of the categories.
Snubs: “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” would’ve been an inspired choice here, as well as “Mickey 17,” but I’m not shocked that neither of them made it.
Prediction: “Marty Supreme”

VISUAL EFFECTS
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Jurassic World Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sinners”
Surprises: “Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning” missing out is surprising, but not incredibly disappointing. Other than that, the category was relatively predictable.
Snubs: “Predator Badlands” should’ve undoubtedly made it over “Sinners”, and there should’ve been room for “28 Years Later”.
Prediction: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

SOUND
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle after Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirȃt”
Surprises: Nothing surprised me from this category, as these films were all heavily featured at the guild and Golden Globes awards.
Snubs: “28 Years Later” and “Weapons” would’ve been great options here, but I think all of the nominees are deserving.
Prediction: “F1”

PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle after Another”
“Sinners”
Surprises: “Sentimental Value” missing out is surprising, but I’m not surprised about any of the nominations.
Snubs: “No Other Choice,” “Sentimental Value” and “Bugonia” would’ve been great nominees, but I’m not upset about any of the films nominated.
Prediction: “Frankenstein”

ORIGINAL SCORE
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
Surprises: I was confident that “Train Dreams” would be on this list in “Bugonia’s” place, but I’m not disappointed by its exclusion.
Snubs: “The Phoenican Scheme” would’ve been a deserving nominee here, but there’s nothing else here I’m upset about.
Prediction: “Sinners”

cin
“Frankenstein”
“Kokuho”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“The Ugly Stepsister”
Surprises: “Weapons” had an outside chance to sneak in, as did “Bugonia”, and the inclusion of “Kokuho” and “The Ugly Stepsister” is shocking to me.
Snubs: “Weapons” undoubtedly should’ve been here, but the inclusion of “The Smashing Machine” is inspired.
Prediction: “Frankenstein”

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirȃt”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Surprises: I had predicted these 5 films exactly, so clearly no surprises.
Snubs: “No Other Choice” not being on this list is ridiculous, but I’m pleased with all the other nominees.
Prediction: “The Secret Agent”

FILM EDITING
“F1”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle after Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Surprises: This would’ve been an excellent place for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” to sneak in, and I wouldn’t have been surprised if “It Was Just an Accident” made it either.
Snubs: “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” should’ve been here, so should “28 Years Later”.
Prediction: “F1”

COSTUME DESIGN
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sinners”
Surprises: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” making it on is shocking, as well as “Bugonia” missing out.
Snubs: Once again, I will utter the words “28 Years Later” as a snub.
Predictions: “Marty Supreme”

CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle after Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Surprises: This is another incredibly predictable category, as the Cinematographers Guild Awards featured all of these films.
Snubs: “28 Years Later”.
Predictions: “Train Dreams”.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Surprises: I was somewhat surprised “Blue Moon” made it on, but not disappointed.
Snubs: “Sorry Baby” fully deserved a nomination, as that may be the second-best screenplay of the year.
Predictions: “Marty Supreme”

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Train Dreams”
Surprises: Nothing surprising at all in this category.
Snubs: “No Other Choice” should’ve easily been here over “Frankenstein’s” middling screenplay.
Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

DIRECTING
Chloė Zhao, “Hamnet”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Surprises: Slightly surprised that Guillermo del Toro didn’t sneak in, but overjoyed with the result.
Snubs: Aster for “Eddington,” Park for “No Other Choice” and Panahi for “It Was Just an Accident” would’ve been incredible nominations.
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Surprises: I’m a little surprised Carlos Francisco didn’t make it on for “The Secret Agent” but I don’t think it was a terrible exclusion.
Snubs: Pedro Pascal in “Eddington,” Sandler in “Jay Kelly” and Ralph Fiennes in “28 Years Later” would’ve been great additions here.
Prediction: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Surprises: Odessa A’Zion made a vigorous campaign to make it on in the wake of the “Marty Supreme” buzz, and I’m surprised Fanning made it on over her, but not unhappy with the result.
Snubs: Margaret Qualley in “Blue Moon” is incredibly deserving of being nominated, and would probably be my favorite performance of the group if she were.
Prediction: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Surprises: For most of awards season, I was confident Paul Mescal for “Hamnet” would make it on the back end of this list, and I’m a little surprised that he’s not, although I’m happy Hawke took his place.
Snubs: This is one of the few categories where I 100% agree with all nominations.
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Surprises: Kate Hudson making it on is honestly shocking, but everyone else I saw coming.
Snubs: Eva Victor for “Sorry Baby” absolutely should’ve been here, and her exclusion is maybe the worst miss of these nominations.
Prediction: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

BEST PICTURE
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Surprises: “F1” making it on is semi-surprising. However, we knew the 10th spot was up for grabs, and “F1” being the awards blockbuster pick makes sense after the massive critical and commercial failure of “Wicked: For Good” and relative disappointment of “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” Additionally, if you told me a month ago that “Bugonia” would be on here and “It Was Just an Accident” wouldn’t, I would call you crazy, but the precursors made this move somewhat predictable.
Snubs: A few films at the top of my year-end list that I’ve been mentioning as snubs throughout are obviously here: mainly “No Other Choice,” “28 Years Later,” “Sorry Baby” and “Eddington”. I’m also disappointed that “It Was Just an Accident” got pushed off, that “The Mastermind” was largely ignored, and the lack of non-acting recognition for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”.
Prediction: “One Battle After Another” remains the clear favorite, although “Hamnet’s” Globes win and “Sinner’s” record-breaking amount of nominations provide the films with some momentum.